原油成品油早报-20250722

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. The EU imposed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, reducing the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear talks with major European powers next week, and whether to resume nuclear talks with the US depends on the US attitude. The supply of Kurdish oil fields was affected by attacks, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. Globally, refinery profits strengthened week - on - week, and the product side remained firm. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and after the increase in June, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, with refinery profits weakening week - on - week, leaving limited room to boost operations further. In the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply supported the crude oil monthly structure, but the peak - season factors were relatively fully realized, and the recent monthly spreads were in a volatile pattern. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.14, Brent by $0.07, and Dubai by $0.15. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by $0.05, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.07. Other price differentials also showed various changes [2]. - For domestic and other related products, SC decreased by 19.70, the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 3.00, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by 2.98, etc. [2] 2. Daily News - Traders are evaluating the real impact of the EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil supply, and international oil prices have limited fluctuations. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including India's Nayara Energy. The Kremlin said it is immune to Western sanctions. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil buyers if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days. The market doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions [2]. - Trump is seeking to impose a 15 - 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods [3]. - The EU sanctioned an Iranian oil tycoon for assisting Russian oil trade. Iran's foreign minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but not directly for now [3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3][15]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. The output of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, the gasoline inventory increased while the diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined week - on - week [4].