《有色》日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]