《特殊商品》日报-20250722

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report provides industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures opened higher and moved up, with SI2509 rising 440 yuan/ton to 9260 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton, opening the basis arbitrage window. From the supply - demand perspective, the shutdown of large - scale organic silicon enterprises due to fire will reduce 3% of the demand, which is not conducive to price increases. However, price increases in organic silicon, polysilicon, and coking coal are favorable for industrial silicon prices. With the reduction of warehouse receipts and controllable inventory, the price continues to rise. Technically, the daily line strongly breaks through the resistance level. Macroscopically, the commodity market is in a bullish trend, and large enterprises have no plans to resume production, which is conducive to the strong oscillation of industrial silicon prices. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will continue to rise, and due to the large open interest of the 09 contract, position control and risk management are recommended [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices opened high, fell back, and then fluctuated upwards, with PS2509 rising 1810 yuan/ton to 45660 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage window. The price increase is being transmitted downstream, and the increase in silicon product transactions and prices is conducive to price support. Downstream prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have increased by 0.2 - 4%. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal installation can absorb the products. With the approaching delivery month of the 08 contract, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management, and whether the increase in prices will lead to an increase in warehouse receipts and hedging positions. Technically, the daily line has a long lower shadow, and the hourly line shows a top - divergence sign, but it is still above the moving average. There is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and price fluctuations are large [2]. Soda Ash - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. Although the inventory decreased on Monday this week, there was a continuous inventory build - up trend before, and the inventory of soda ash plants continued to reach new highs. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has flattened, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the second half of the year, with a possible further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, the overall demand for soda ash has not increased significantly. Without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, inventory build - up may accelerate. In the short term, due to policy and news disturbances, the futures market fluctuates sharply, deviating from its fundamental logic, and caution is recommended [3]. Glass - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. The futures market sentiment has driven the spot market to be strong, with high sales - to - production ratios in many regions and spot price increases. However, it is currently the rainy season in summer, the deep - processing orders are weak, the low - e glass production rate is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the industry needs to eliminate production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the implementation of production line exits to bring a real reversal to the futures market. Currently, the futures market is mainly driven by sentiment, and large fluctuations are expected in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia has continued to hinder rubber tapping in the producing areas, and raw material prices have rebounded. There may be a typhoon hitting Hainan next week, so there are many short - term disturbances on the supply side. On the demand side, the overall sales performance is mediocre, the channel inventory is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited, with a short - term stable trend. Although the hot weather has driven a certain increase in downstream demand, the overall effect is average. In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas, rubber prices have continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather in the main producing areas improves, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [5]. Logs - Recently, under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, the sentiment of commodities has improved, and log futures have risen significantly last week. Fundamentally, the expected arrival volume this week is expected to gradually recover. Currently, due to the high - temperature weather, the demand for logs is in the off - season, and the spot price has declined. Short - term chasing of rising prices is not recommended, but buying on dips can be considered during corrections. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon increased from 9320 to 9500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.60%; the basis decreased from 655 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 63.36%. The price of Huale SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 9650 to 9750 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04%; the basis decreased from - 10 to - 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 300.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased from 8650 to 8800 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.73%; the basis decreased from 755 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.97% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased from - 10 to - 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased from 35 to 70 yuan/ton, a rise of 100.00%; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased from 30 to 80 yuan/ton, a rise of 166.67%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased from - 290 to - 210 yuan/ton, a rise of 27.59%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased from 65 to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 23.08% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%; Xinjiang's production decreased from 21.08 to 16.75 million tons, a decline of 20.55%; Yunnan's production increased from 1.23 to 1.35 million tons, a rise of 9.35%; Sichuan's production increased from 0.46 to 1.13 million tons, a rise of 145.65%. The national operating rate decreased from 57.80% to 51.23%, a decline of 11.37%; Xinjiang's operating rate decreased from 78.05% to 60.74%, a decline of 22.18%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased from 19.97% to 18.13%, a decline of 9.21%; Sichuan's operating rate increased from 0.49% to 7.30%, a rise of 1389.80%. Organic silicon DMC production increased from 18.40 to 20.93 million tons, a rise of 13.75%; polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased from 60.60 to 61.50 million tons, a rise of 1.49%; industrial silicon exports increased from 5.95 to 6.05 million tons, a rise of 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 12.39 to 12.36 million tons, a decline of 0.24%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased from 2.72 to 2.73 million tons, a rise of 0.37%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 2.33 to 2.30 million tons, a decline of 1.29%. Social inventory decreased from 55.10 to 54.70 million tons, a decline of 0.73%; warrant inventory decreased from 25.20 to 25.07 million tons, a decline of 0.50%; non - warrant inventory decreased from 29.90 to 29.63 million tons, a decline of 0.92% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 46000 yuan/ton; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like feedstock remained at 29500 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 43000 yuan/ton. The N - type feedstock basis decreased from 2150 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.19%; the cauliflower - like feedstock basis decreased from - 2350 to - 4160 yuan/ton, a decline of 77.02% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The price of PS2506 increased from 43850 to 45660 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.13%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased from 370 to 225 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.19%; the spread of PS2507 - PS2508 decreased from 235 to 145 yuan/ton, a decline of 38.30%; the spread of PS2508 - PS2509 decreased from 320 to 180 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2509 - PS2510 decreased from - 2015 to - 2075 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98%; the spread of PS2510 - PS2511 decreased from 380 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2511 - PS2512 decreased from 200 to 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased from 11.50 to 11.10 GW, a decline of 3.48%; polysilicon production increased from 2.28 to 2.30 million tons, a rise of 0.88%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; polysilicon imports increased from 0.10 to 0.11 million tons, a rise of 16.59%; polysilicon exports increased from 0.21 to 0.22 million tons, a rise of 5.96%; the net export of polysilicon remained at 0.11 million tons, a decline of 2.91%. Silicon wafer production increased from 58.06 to 58.84 GM, a rise of 1.34%; silicon wafer imports decreased from 0.07 to 0.06 million tons, a decline of 15.41%; silicon wafer exports increased from 0.55 to 0.61 million tons, a rise of 11.37%; the net export of silicon wafers increased from 0.48 to 0.55 million tons, a rise of 15.56%. Silicon wafer demand decreased from 60.61 to 56.53 CM, a decline of 6.73% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased from 27.60 to 24.90 million tons, a decline of 9.78%; silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.13 to 16.02 GM, a decline of 11.64%; polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2780 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China glass increased from 1160 to 1180 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.72%; the price of East China glass increased from 1240 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.81%; the price of Central China glass increased from 1100 to 1130 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.73%; the price of South China glass remained at 1290 yuan/ton. The price of glass 2505 increased from 1240 to 1317 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.21% [3]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China soda ash remained at 1350 yuan/ton; the price of East China soda ash remained at 1230 yuan/ton; the price of Central China soda ash remained at 1200 yuan/ton; the price of Northwest soda ash increased from 960 to 980 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 increased from 1306 to 1390 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 increased from 1216 to 1295 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.05% [3]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased from 81.32% to 84.10%, a rise of 3.42%; the weekly production of soda ash increased from 70.90 to 73.32 million tons, a rise of 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased from 15.84 to 15.78 million tons, a decline of 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased from 94390 to 91840 tons, a decline of 2.70% [3]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 6710.20 to 6493.90 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decline of 3.22%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased from 186.34 to 190.56 million tons, a rise of 2.26%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased from 23.80 to 24.66 million tons, a rise of 3.61%. The inventory days of soda ash in glass factories increased from 21.0 to 23.4 days, a rise of 11.34% [3]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - The new construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year; the construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year; the completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year; the sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [3]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased from 14800 to 14850 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the whole - latex basis decreased from - 10 to - 45 yuan/ton, a decline of 350.00%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14500 to 14550 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the non - standard price difference decreased from - 310 to - 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.29%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased from 48.60 to 49.30 Thai baht/kg, a rise of 1.44%; the FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market remained at 54.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna remained at 12800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained at 13400 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan increased from 13200 to 13300 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.7