大越期货棉花早报-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral, with various institutions' reports showing different production, consumption, and inventory data. The base - point indicates that the spot price has a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish. The market trend is affected by factors such as the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation's three - month relaxation period and the expiration of pre - export orders. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou Cotton's main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariff increases between China and the US and a 90 - day export order rush period. Bearish factors are the approaching end of the three - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ICAC's July report shows a 2025/26 cotton production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a 2025/26 production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In June, textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 report shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Base - point: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, with a base - point of 1324 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - Inventory: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The three - month relaxation period of Sino - US trade negotiations is about to end. Although some progress has been made in the negotiations, the final situation is uncertain. The front - running export orders have basically ended, increasing market concerns. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is significantly stronger than the 01 contract, and it may fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: USDA's July report shows global cotton production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. ICAC's data shows different production, consumption, and inventory figures for different years. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4][10][13][15]. - Price - related Data: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, and the base - point is 1324 (for the 09 contract). The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton in 2025/26, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][15]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].