大越期货白糖早报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets, and near - term contracts are stronger than long - term ones. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 300. In the next month or so, the spot price may decline slightly, while the 09 futures price may rise slightly to complete the convergence of the futures - spot price difference. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000 [5]. - The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, but there are differences in the forecasts of various institutions [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Negative factors include increased global sugar production and a surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The modification of the cola formula is a long - term positive for sugar. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 1139.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 297, indicating a premium over the futures, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 304.83 million tons, which is positive [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus, Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus, Green Pool expects a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.9917 billion tons, and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 1139.7 million tons [4][9]. - Domestic Supply - Demand Data: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 million tons [4]. - Price and Spread: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 297. The import price after processing imported raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5693, and the import spread is - 130. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6000 [6][9]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.