大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,900 - 73,860 yuan/ton [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high and stable supply from ore and salt lake sources and the weak willingness of the power battery sector to purchase [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.09% day - on - day, with a profit of 833 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica increased by 1.45% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,969 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On July 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,780 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market Chart: The MA20 of the market chart is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: In June 2025, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 81,150 physical tons next month, a 3.92% increase. The import volume is expected to decrease by 2.22% month - on - month. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day but is lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has intensified [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of various contracts have increased to different extents, with the 09 contract increasing by 2.24% [13]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts has changed, with the 09 contract showing a 15.24% change [13]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products have changed. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.64%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.62% [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [20]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has shown different trends in different years [20]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [20][23]. - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [26]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [26][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The production capacity, utilization rate, and output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed [33]. - Import and Export: There is a supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time [38][41]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have also changed [38][41]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [46]. 3.6 Demand - Related - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [50]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries [50]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [50]. - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [56][59]. - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [62]. - Production: The production capacity, output, and export volume of ternary materials have changed [62][64]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [66]. - Production: The monthly production and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [66][69]. - New Energy Vehicles - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time [74]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [75].