Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the industrial silicon market is complex, with a bearish fundamental outlook but some bullish factors in the market. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9505 - 9805 [6]. - The polysilicon market also shows a bearish fundamental outlook, with continuous increase in supply and continuous decline in demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48215 - 49995 [11]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%. The demand remained weak. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells was in a loss state, while the production of components was profitable. The comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon was 71.38%, unchanged from the previous period and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of recycled aluminum was 53.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%, at a low level [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - containing 553 was 2,789 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season was weakening [6]. - Basis: On July 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - containing silicon in East China was 9,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%; the inventory of sample enterprises was 173,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the inventory of major ports was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% [6]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [6]. - Expectation: The production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. Industrial silicon 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9505 - 9805 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74% compared with the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.1 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47%. The inventory was 160,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.63%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 52.2 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.28% compared with the previous month. In June, the battery cell output was 56.19 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.73%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 9.94 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 54.52 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%. In June, the component output was 46.3 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%. It is expected that the component output in July will be 45.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83%. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%. The European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 20.77%. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,370 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,630 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 22, the price of N - type polysilicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%, at a high level in the same period of history [12]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and long positions increased [12]. - Expectation: The production schedule on the supply side continues to increase, and the demand on the demand side continues to decline. Overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48215 - 49995 [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: Provides detailed data on prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon, including futures contract prices, spot prices, basis, social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, port inventory, production in different regions, and cost - profit of different specifications [18]. - Polysilicon: Provides detailed data on prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit of polysilicon, including futures contract prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, component prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit [20]. Other Aspects - The report also provides a large amount of historical data and trend charts on the price, inventory, production, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.), as well as supply - demand balance tables, to help understand the market situation and development trends [22][25][30][35][39][42][45][47][50][53][56][63][66][69][72][75][78][81][83].
工业硅期货早报-20250723
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:10