大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP markets are influenced by both positive factors such as cost support and macro - policy promotion for the petrochemical industry's steady growth, and negative factors like weak demand [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7240 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 128, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.7%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the agricultural film in the off - season and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the stable growth of the petrochemical industry [6]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand [6]. - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the stable growth of the petrochemical industry [8]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand [8]. - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery goods is 7240 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7368 (+78), the basis is - 128 (-58), the warehouse receipt is 5822 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 58.7 tons, and the PE social inventory is 558.22 tons [9]. - PP: The spot price of delivery goods is 7150 (+0), the price of the 09 contract is 7168 (+77), the basis is - 18 (-77), the warehouse receipt is 12242 (+2169), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.6 tons, and the PP social inventory is 272.14 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].