大越期货贵金属早报-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Powell's fake resignation letter caused a stir, the US-Japan agreement may be reached, and gold prices continued to rise. The risk - preference increased, but the gold price still went up due to high Fed rate - cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 2.3 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: With the domestic commodity boom, Shanghai silver continued to hit a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to about 380 yuan/kg, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stock indices closed mixed, European stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields declined across the board (10 - year US bond yield fell 3.17 basis points to 4.344%), the US dollar index dropped 0.49% to 97.36, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: US and European stock indices closed mixed, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - Gold: The basis was - 4.29 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 28,857 kg (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 36 (spot at a discount to futures, neutral); the warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 5,420 kg to 1,199,046 kg (neutral); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi - 10:00: Press conference on Hainan Free Trade Port construction - Time TBD: Precision Manufacturing Forum for Humanoid Robots from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: 2025 OpenAtom Open - Source Ecosystem Conference - Time TBD: 24th China Internet Conference from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: First Shanghai International Low - Altitude Economy Expo from July 23 - 26 - Time TBD: Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hosts EU - Japan annual summit - 22:00: US existing home sales in June, preliminary reading of Eurozone consumer confidence index in July - Time TBD: US President Trump's speech on "Winning the AI Race" [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was neutral. The Fed rate - cut expectations were high, and the commodity upsurge supported the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold converged, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: The domestic commodity boom led to Shanghai silver hitting a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.46% to 210,949, the short position decreased by 1.35% to 61,692, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 149,257 [5][31]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.25% to 466,291, the short position increased by 1.38% to 372,943, and the net position decreased by 6.26% to 93,348 [32].