大越期货油脂早报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Ship survey agencies show that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 224, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and subsequent supply is expected to increase [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and subsequent supply is expected to increase [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 123, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [7] - Negative Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [7]