大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: In the short term, PTA is expected to have weak drivers and its price will follow cost fluctuations. The PTA devices are operating stably, the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, polyester sales are weak, and inventory pressure is emerging. Polyester manufacturers are calling for production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. In mid - July, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is limited, and the visible inventory is expected to decline at the beginning of this week. From July to August, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Analysis - Fundamentals: On July 22, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, with a small number of polyester factories making bids. The spot basis was weak. The negotiation and transaction price range was 4740 - 4805. The mainstream spot basis on July 23 was 09 + 2 [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4772, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 22, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories was 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [6]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - Fundamentals: On July 22, the price center of ethylene glycol moved upwards. The market negotiation was acceptable. Affected by the restart of some Saudi devices, the futures price declined slightly in the morning, and the spot price was around 4460 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price rose, and the high - level spot price was above 4520 yuan/ton. The price center of the external market also moved upwards [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4490, and the basis of the 09 contract was 43, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [7]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, consumption, and inventory [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It presents the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory [11]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - Price: It includes the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and price differences between different contracts of PTA and MEG [13][16][23][29]. - Spread: It involves the basis of PTA and MEG, month - to - month spreads, and spot spreads [26][29][36]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, PET slices, and various types of polyester products in China [39][41][44]. 3.6开工率分析 - Upstream of Polyester: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - Downstream of Polyester: It presents the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - PTA: It shows the processing fees of PTA from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - MEG: It presents the production profits of different production methods of ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - Polyester Fibers: It shows the production profits of polyester short - fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64].