芳烃橡胶早报-20250723

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: PTA Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, crude oil decreased from $68.5 to $68.6, PTA internal spot price fluctuated around 4700 - 4785, and various spreads and margins also changed [2] - Market Situation: Near - term TA weekly operation remained stable, polyester load declined, inventory slightly accumulated, basis rebounded after liquidity shock weakened, and spot processing fee slightly recovered; PX domestic operation decreased slightly, overseas load increased, PXN strengthened slightly [3] - Outlook: TA enters the inventory accumulation stage but the absolute inventory level is not high. The slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fee is compressed to a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the far - month processing fee at low prices; PX overall inventory reduction trend has not reversed, and the valuation floor is still guaranteed [3] Group 3: MEG Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, MEG internal price increased from 4400 to 4490, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term EG domestic unexpected reduction increased, overseas Saudi devices stopped again. With the decline of phased arrivals, port inventory is expected to decrease. After the monthly structure repair, the basis weakened, and the benefit ratio further expanded [3] - Outlook: Supply - side unexpected reduction leads to a downward revision of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, the far - month valuation will rise correspondingly, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6680 to 6640, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term Xin凤鸣, Yuanfang, and Zhongtai reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 89.5%, sales decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn continued to decline, raw material inventory increased slightly, and finished product inventory continued to accumulate, with low benefits [3] - Outlook: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has no obvious reduction or increase. Domestic demand is weak while export growth is high. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased from 1755 to 1800, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, with a relatively low absolute level but no seasonal reduction; the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [3] - Outlook: The main strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 6: Styrene Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The prices of related products such as styrene and its downstream products changed, and the domestic profits of related products also showed different trends [3]