建信期货铝日报-20250723

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere remains strongly positive, with the black series commodities and ferrosilicon reaching their daily limit on the 22nd. Driven by the optimistic sentiment, the aluminum industry chain continues to be strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly by over 6%, reaching a new high for the year, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. Currently in the traditional off-season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The overall fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro atmosphere drives the aluminum industry chain to remain strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum has risen by 0.75% to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index has increased by 19,572 to 694,390 lots. The premium between the 08 and 09 contracts has narrowed by 5 to 25, and the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -490. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The start-up rate of the aluminum processing sector remains low, and the high absolute price of aluminum is expected to have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting remains at a high level of over 4,200 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] 2. Industry News - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Due to the start of the second-phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production of the original plant was reduced, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in production. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the second-phase replacement project in Yunnan has been put into operation, leading to a recovery in the industry's start-up rate [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market. Local governments are required to take responsibility, make full use of their autonomy in real estate regulation policies, and implement targeted measures to stabilize the market [10] - Alcoa has announced that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain has been postponed to mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was originally in progress but was delayed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April. After reviewing the government's report on the power outage and receiving commitments on grid reliability and energy competitiveness, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart project [10]