建信期货国债日报-20250723

General Information - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Report Type: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction due to stable fundamentals, policy, and capital conditions, along with elevated market risk appetite. Long - term, there may be an increase in monetary easing in October, but there's a risk of a bond market trend reversal if anti - involution effectively boosts domestic demand and inflation [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The marginal improvement in inter - bank liquidity continued, but the sharp rise in A - shares, especially the strength of cyclical stocks, significantly suppressed the bond market, and the decline of treasury bond futures widened in the afternoon [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased. Short - term yields changed slightly, while long - term yields rose by about 1 - 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.689%, up 1.2bp [9] - Funding Market: The funding situation was stable. There were 462.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 247.7 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates declined, and medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] 2. Industry News - LPR: The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [13] - Sino - EU Relations: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24 [13] - Central Bank Policy: The central bank solicited public opinions on canceling the regulation on freezing bond repurchase collateral, mainly to enhance bond liquidity and optimize the central bank's monetary policy operation mechanism [13] - Business and Trade: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions [13] - Infrastructure Project: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14] - G20 Meeting: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, China stated that it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: Data on trading, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 22 were presented, as well as information on spreads between different contracts and their trends [6] - Money Market: Data on SHIBOR, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates, and other money market indicators were covered [29][33] - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35]