甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of bearish factor realization. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred, but the unilateral direction is hard to determine due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US [2] - Plastic (PE): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [11] - Polypropylene (PP): Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are performing well. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which could be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [11] - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is -450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [13] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 16 to July 22, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the江苏现货 price increased by 12, and the华南现货 price rose by 25. The盘面MTO profit decreased by 61 [2] - Market Situation: High imports are being realized, inventory is accumulating, and it's in a bearish factor realization phase. Iran has reduced its开工 rate, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [2] Plastic (PE) - Price Data: From July 16 to July 22, the东北亚乙烯 price remained unchanged, the华北LL price increased by 60, and the主力期货 price rose by 78 [11] - Market Situation: The overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around -400, and 6 - month maintenance has decreased with an increase in domestic linear production [11] Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: From July 16 to July 22, the山东丙烯 price remained stable, the华东PP price increased by 10, and the主力期货 price rose by 77. The仓单 increased by 2169 [11] - Market Situation: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June [11] PVC - Price Data: From July 16 to July 22, the西北电石 and山东烧碱 prices remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20, and the基差 (高端交割品) decreased by 10 [12][13] - Market Situation: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability [13]