《黑色》日报-20250723

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel industry is expected to continue its strong performance. The market sentiment has improved due to the supply contraction expectations from policies and the marginal improvement in the industrial supply - demand situation. It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Prices of various steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3320 to 3370 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3413 to 3490 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: Costs of steel production like billet and plate billet prices have changed, and the profits of different regions and steel types have generally increased. For instance, the East China hot - rolled coil profit rose from 201 to 281 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 1.1% to 242.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5% to 868.2 tons. Rebar production decreased by 3.5% to 209.1 tons [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 1337.7 tons, while the rebar inventory increased by 0.5% to 543.3 tons [1]. - Trading and Demand: The daily average building material trading volume increased by 35.6% to 12.8 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.3% to 870.1 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. With the high - level hot - metal production and the expected supply - side policies, it is recommended to hold long positions and cautiously participate in buying the 2509 contract at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehousing costs and spot prices have increased. For example, the warehousing cost of PB powder rose from 831.5 to 846.9 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 6.1% [4]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.9% to 2371.2 tons, while the global shipping volume increased by 4.1% to 3109.1 tons [4]. - Demand: The weekly average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1% to 242.4 tons, and the weekly average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.0% to 322.7 tons [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly by 0.0% to 13783.86 tons, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.8% to 8822.2 tons [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both the coke and coking coal markets are in an upward trend. For coke, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations and hold long positions. For coking coal, it is also recommended to conduct hedging operations and hold long positions and buy the 09 contract at low prices [6]. Summary by Directory - Coke Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke contracts such as the 09 and 01 contracts increased by 5.9%. The second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented, and a third - round increase is expected [6]. - Coking Coal Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal contracts such as the 09 and 01 contracts increased, with the 09 - contract price of coking coal rising by 4.2% [6]. - Supply and Demand of Coke: The supply of coke is limited due to the slow resumption of coal mines and the difficulty in increasing production of some loss - making coking enterprises. The demand has increased with the resumption of blast furnaces and the rise in hot - metal output [6]. - Supply and Demand of Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is in short supply as some coal mines are required to stop production. The demand has increased with the increase in coking plant operations and downstream hot - metal production [6]. - Inventory: Coke inventories in coking plants and ports decreased, while those in steel mills increased. Coking coal inventories in mines and ports decreased, while those in downstream enterprises increased [6].