《能源化工》

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - Supply: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - Demand: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - Inventory: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - Product Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - Supply and Demand: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - Operating Rates and Inventory: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].