大越期货豆粕早报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The soybean futures A2509 may fluctuate between 4180 and 4280. The market focuses on factors such as the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and Sino - US trade tariff games [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal futures are back in a range - bound state, while the spot is relatively weak, and the spot discount remains at a relatively high level. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains volatile [22][28]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic import of soybeans reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels. The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and soybean meal demand has weakened after May Day. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed in. For soybeans, the main positions switched from long to short, and funds flowed in [8][10].