《农产品》日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by production growth and export decline, the crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure after oscillating around the annual line, testing the support at 4,100 ringgit. Domestically, there is a risk of weakness for domestic palm oil futures, with attention on the support around 8,800 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: In August, weather impacts on soybean crops increase. Although the latest US soybean good - rate is high, CBOT soybeans may fluctuate narrowly. Domestically, short - term basis quotes may be under pressure, but long - term support exists [1]. 2.2. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted, production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained considering the overall production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally looser, with a bearish view after rebounds [3][4]. 2.3. Cotton - The demand side of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to a follow - up increase in yarn prices. The supply side faces some pressure from the sale of old cotton stocks, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before new cotton is listed. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and face pressure after new cotton is listed [7]. 2.4. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and laying rates, causing a shortage of large - sized eggs. With the start of the peak demand season, egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [9]. 2.5. Corn - The corn auction on July 22 had a 27%成交 rate, and the market has digested the news. Supply is tightening due to factors like reduced willingness to sell and bad weather. Demand has some resilience. In the medium - term, supply is tight and demand is increasing, supporting prices. In the short - term, the market is stable, and the futures may oscillate strongly but with limited space [12][13]. 2.6. Meal - US soybeans are bottom - oscillating, and the expected August drought in the main production areas provides support. Brazilian soybeans are firm, but Chinese purchases of US soybeans may suppress Brazilian premiums. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. After October, the continuity of soybean arrivals is uncertain, and a cautious bullish operation is recommended [16]. 2.7. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak, so prices are weak. There is no basis for a sharp decline, but the upside is limited. The futures are affected by macro funds, and caution is needed when chasing up prices in the far - month contracts [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.24% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 0.20% to 8,092 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 0.18% to 8,926 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the futures price (01509) decreased by 0.90% to 9,477 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Sugar - Price Changes: - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.30% to 5,653 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.27% to 5,823 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.17% to 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.68% to 5,920 yuan/ton [3]. - Industry Data: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 23.07% to 811.38 million tons [3]. 3.3. Cotton - Price Changes: - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.28% to 14,225 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 0.29% to 14,030 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.41% to 15,416 yuan/ton [7]. - Industry Data: - Northern inventory decreased by 10.2% to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% to 88.21 million tons [7]. 3.4. Eggs - Price Changes: - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.41% to 3,621 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract decreased by 0.53% to 3,574 yuan/500KG [9]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 1.59% to 3.23 yuan/jin [9]. 3.5. Corn - Price Changes: - The price of corn 2509 increased by 0.09% to 2,322 yuan/ton, and the price of corn starch 2509 increased by 0.15% to 2,668 yuan/ton [12]. - Industry Data: - The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 35.29% to 132 [12]. 3.6. Meal - Price Changes: - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.35% to 2,900 yuan/ton, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 0.43% to 3,069 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.34% to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 0.18% to 2,727 yuan/ton [16]. 3.7. Pigs - Price Changes: - The price of the pig 2511 contract increased by 0.65% to 13,960 yuan/ton, and the price of the pig 2509 contract increased by 0.10% to 14,380 yuan/ton [19]. - Industry Data: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.09% to 133,605 heads, and the monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% to 4,042 million heads [19].