大越期货原油早报-20250723

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. With Trump's official announcement of the US - Japan trade agreement this morning, the overall financial market sentiment warmed up, and oil prices recovered to some extent. The decline in API crude oil inventory was small, while the refined oil inventory in the downstream increased significantly, which put some pressure on the optimistic demand during the subsequent summer peak season. Short - term oil prices will continue to oscillate. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. - The short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the market, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other factors are all neutral. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, under which Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff. The details of the agreement, especially regarding whether Japanese automobiles and parts will be exempted from the 25% tariff, have not been fully disclosed. Japan's government officials said that Japan and the US have agreed to reduce the automobile tariff to 15% [5]. - The Canadian Prime Minister tried to lower the outside world's expectations of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days, saying that the negotiation was difficult due to the US government's changing goals. Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if an agreement is not reached by August 1st [5]. - API data showed that for the week ending July 18th, US crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increased by 3.48 million barrels [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - Likely to Rise: The short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the summer demand begins to increase [6]. - Likely to Fall: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Compared with the previous value, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of - 0.90%, - 0.97%, - 1.69%, and - 0.39% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of British Brent, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased compared with the previous value, with declines of - 0.79%, - 2.81%, - 0.17%, - 0.58%, and - 0.38% respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventory data show the changes in US crude oil inventory over time. As of July 18th, API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels; as of July 11th, EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels [10][12]. 5. Position Data - As of July 15th, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3]. - The data on the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds show their changes over time [14][17].