Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - Market Analysis: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - Price Changes: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - Industry Situation: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - Market Analysis: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - Industry Situation: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - Market Analysis: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - Industry Situation: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - Market Analysis: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - Industry Situation: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - Industry Situation: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - Market Analysis: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Price Changes: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - Industry Situation: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - Market Analysis: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-23 03:32