Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - News: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - Funding: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - Operation Suggestion: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - News: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - Operation Suggestion: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Situation: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - Spot Price: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - Index: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - Fundamentals: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - Logic: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - Operation Suggestion: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - Macro: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - Supply: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - Demand: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - Logic: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - Supply: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - Inventory: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - Logic: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - Spot: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - Supply: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - Demand: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - Inventory: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - Logic: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - Supply: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - Demand: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - Inventory: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - Logic: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - Spot: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - Demand: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - Logic: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - Spot: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - Supply: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - Demand and Inventory: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - Logic: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - Operation Suggestion: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - Spot: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - Supply: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - Inventory: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - Logic: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - Spot: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - Supply: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - Inventory: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - Logic: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - Demand: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - Inventory: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - Logic: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - Cost and Profit: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - Supply: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - Demand: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - Logic: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - Spot: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - Futures: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - Demand: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - Supply: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - Logic: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - Supply: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - Demand: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - Logic: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - Futures and Spot: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - Supply: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - Demand: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - Logic: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - Fundamentals: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - Market Outlook: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot Situation: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market Data: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - Market Outlook: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - Spot Price: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - Fundamentals: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - Market Outlook: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]
广发早知道：汇总版-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-23 05:16