Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - Supply and Inventory: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - Fundamental Data: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - Fundamental Data: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-23 05:31