Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - Long Positions: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - Short Positions: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - Hold and Observe: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - Equity Index: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - Treasury Bonds: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - Precious Metals: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - Black Metals: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - Energy and Chemicals: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - Agricultural Products: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - Special Commodities: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories Equity Index Futures - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] Treasury Bond Futures - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] Precious Metals Futures - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] Container Shipping Index Futures - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] Black Metal Futures - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] Non - ferrous Metal Futures - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude Oil: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - Chemicals: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] Agricultural Product Futures - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] Special Commodity Futures - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]
广发期货日评-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-23 05:44