Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, stating that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, play the role of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China - US relations [3]. - Iran will hold a tri - party meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized European countries for using the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism as a tool to threaten Iran [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories falling. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis [5]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining slightly and global oil inventories increasing slightly [6]. - Policy: The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and the decision to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude [6]. - Supply: The Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption [6]. - Fundamentals: Global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. Global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations [6]. - Outlook: During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [18]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day [18]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [18]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07% [18]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [18].
原油成品油早报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-23 08:30