瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored, but the actual situation remains weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. [2] - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a situation where the main contract oscillates downward, the trading volume decreases, the spot is at a premium, and the basis strengthens. [2] - In the option market, the call position dominates, the market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 69,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 158,571 hands, a decrease of 10,064 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 362,054 hands, a decrease of 49,584 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 10,089 hands/ton, an increase of 120 hands. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,850 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remain unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 vehicles, a decrease of 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, an increase of 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 6,937,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,993,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, a decrease of 70,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 1.06 million vehicles, an increase of 455,000 vehicles. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 193,954 contracts, a decrease of 1,039 contracts; the total put position is 92,722 contracts, an increase of 3,525 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 47.81%, an increase of 2.0625 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.39%, an increase of 0.0457 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Zimbabwe's spodumene concentrate exports increased by 30% year - on - year, reaching 586,197 tons. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa were the main importing countries. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was about 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. [2]