瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Corn - The excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. The initial growth excellent rate is good, with high output prospects, and international corn prices continue to face pressure [2]. - In the domestic market, the frequency and time of weekly auctions of imported corn are relatively fixed, but the auction transaction volume remains low, and the transaction premium is gradually decreasing. Due to the previous weak outlook of traders and panic selling, the supply of grain sources has increased temporarily. However, the deep - processing efficiency is poor, and some enterprises have suspended or limited production, leading to relatively limited procurement demand and a continuous decline in prices. Recently, as traders' selling speed is fast, the inventory of commercial grain has decreased significantly, and the sentiment of grain - holding entities to hold back sales has increased, resulting in a decreasing trend of grain supply. Some processing enterprises have rigid procurement needs, and the purchase price has strengthened slightly recently. The corn futures have maintained a low - level shock recently after the previous decline, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure has significantly weakened. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. As of July 23, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 131100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40%. The starch futures have rebounded recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 74 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 923031 lots [2]. - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 62 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 207954 lots, down 16277 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 20212 lots, up 1928 lots; for corn starch, it is - 19454 lots, up 885 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 175450 lots, down 207 lots; for corn starch, they are 11334 lots, down 800 lots [2]. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 354 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417.5 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel; total open interest is 1470395 contracts, down 28569 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 12305 contracts, down 129457 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2409.02 yuan/ton, down 0.88 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1993.7 yuan/ton, down 0.43 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the main corn contract is 88.02 yuan/ton, up 0.12 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream - The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 16 million hectares; the predicted output is 401.85 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares; the predicted output is 131 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; the predicted output is 53 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in China is 44.3 million hectares; the predicted output is 295 million tons [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. Industry - The corn inventory in southern ports is 838000 tons, down 48000 tons; in northern ports, it is 3.17 million tons, down 360000 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 4.27 million tons, down 166000 tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 131100 tons, down 3500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 160000 tons, down 30000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98100 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 31.34 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption is 1100500 tons, down 57300 tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 38.34%, down 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 45.46%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 151 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei, it is - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.68%, down 0.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress weekly report shows that the excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. As of July 13, the silking rate of US corn was 34%, up from 18% last week, lower than 39% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 33%. The dough stage ratio was 7%, up from 3% last week, the same as 7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].