瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts did not significantly expand production capacity fluctuations. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, but prices gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and demand has weakened marginally. It is expected that the overall production decline of silicon wafer enterprises will end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Today, the polysilicon market limit - up was mainly due to the increase in coal prices, energy prices, and costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic sector continued to be a major part of the anti - involution meeting trading, leading to a volume - driven increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and high inventory, if the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. Today, the spot price remained flat, and there were rumors of warehouse receipt expansion, causing price divergence at high levels and high volatility. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or sell call options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,080 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 975 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 165,641 lots, a decrease of 26,538 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 40,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,105 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 3,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,445 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, a decrease of 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, a decrease of 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2] Industry News - On the afternoon of July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration on promoting the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice stated that since this year, the overall supply - demand situation of coal in the country has been loose, prices have been continuously declining, and some coal mining enterprises have exceeded the announced production capacity to produce in order to "make up for price with volume", seriously disrupting the coal market order. To standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and promote the stable and orderly supply of coal, the National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal production in key coal - producing provinces (regions) in the near future. On the morning of the 23rd, it was confirmed from multiple channels of the National Energy Administration that the notice was true. According to informed sources, the document was led by the Coal Department [2]