建信期货多晶硅日报-20250724

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of polysilicon hit the daily limit during the session and then opened the limit and tumbled. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,080 yuan/ton, with a gain of 5.33%. The trading volume was 1,246,241 lots, and the open interest was 165,641 lots, a net decrease of 26,538 lots [4]. - The fundamental factors are not the main driving logic at present. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the domestic demand lacks follow - up, and the monthly terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. The resumption of production by silicon material enterprises will increase the supply to 10 - 110,000 tons, which can roughly meet the downstream demand of 48 - 50GW, and the supply - demand is barely balanced [4]. - The current market is mainly driven by policy > funds > fundamentals. After the commodity index fills the gap, there is resistance to the subsequent rally. If the polysilicon fails to break through the previous high in the short - term, it is likely to reach a phased peak. However, due to policy support and the fact that the spot price should not be lower than the full cost, the downward space is also limited. It is expected to be in a cautious and strong high - level oscillation during the day [4]. 3) Summaries According to Related Catalogs a. Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The polysilicon main contract showed volatile performance, hitting the daily limit and then falling. PS2509 had specific closing price, trading volume, and open - interest data [4]. - Outlook: The fundamental factors are not the main driver. There is a change in supply - demand after the end of the rush - installation. The current market is mainly affected by policy and funds, and the short - term trend has certain characteristics and limitations [4]. b. Market News - On July 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, with no increase compared to the previous trading day [5]. - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials were to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Southeast Asia was the main export destination, with Thailand and Malaysia as the main incremental markets for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].