Group 1: Report's Core Views - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 79,875 and a basis of 285, showing a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories present a neutral situation. On July 23, the copper inventory decreased by 25 to 124,825 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logic of recent market movements is influenced by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - China's copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Group 2: China's Annual Copper Supply - Demand Balance Table | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 873 | 372 | 28 | 1217 | 1207 | 1 | | 2019 | 894 | 348 | 35 | 1207 | 1205 | | | 2020 | 930 | 452 | 21 | 1361 | 1291 | 70 | | 2021 | 998 | 344 | 27 | 1315 | 1361 | - 46 | | 2022 | 1028 | 367 | 23 | 1372 | 1380 | - 8 | | 2023 | 1144 | 351 | 28 | 1467 | 1477 | - 10 | | 2024 | 1206 | 373 | 46 | 1534 | 1523 | 11 | [22]
大越期货沪铜早报-20250724
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-24 01:35