沪锌期货早报-20250724

Report Overview - The report is the Shanghai Zinc Futures Morning Report on July 24, 2025, released by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The short - term market may fluctuate and strengthen, with the price above the moving average system, strong moving average support, and the short - term indicator KDJ rising in the strong area, though the over - bought situation is intensifying [2][20] Content Summary by Category 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons [2] - The spot price was 22,840, and the basis was - 135 [2] - On July 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons to 115,325 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 12,090 tons [2] - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average upward [2] - The main position was net short, with long positions turning to short [2] 2. Futures Market Quotes - On July 23, in the zinc futures market, contracts from 2508 to 2607 all showed price increases. For example, the 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 22,860, an opening price of 22,850, a high of 23,020, a low of 22,815, and a closing price of 22,975 [3] 3. Spot Market Quotes - On July 23, in the domestic main spot market, prices of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. mostly increased. For example, the price of zinc ingot in Australia was 22,840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [4] 4. Inventory Statistics - From July 10 to July 21, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 72,700 tons to 75,500 tons [5] 5. Zinc Warrant Report - On July 23, the total zinc warrants in the futures exchange were 12,090 tons, with no change [7] 6. LME Zinc Inventory - On July 23, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons to 115,325 tons [8] 7. Zinc Concentrate Price - On July 23, the prices of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities were mostly around 17,410 - 17,610 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton [9] 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On July 23, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 40 yuan/ton [13] 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value [15] 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On July 23, the processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 60 - 80 US dollars/dry ton [17] 11. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On July 23, in the SHFE member zinc trading and position ranking for the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 55,224 lots, a decrease of 2,610 lots compared to the previous trading day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 24,358 lots, a decrease of 427 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 11,878 lots, a decrease of 267 lots [18]