大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - PTA装置近期平稳运行，三房巷新装置投产，昨日聚酯产销大幅放量使聚酯工厂库存压力缓解，预计短期内PTA价格跟随成本震荡，基差偏弱运行，需关注下游聚酯负荷波动 [5]。 - 基本面方面，昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差偏弱；基差显示盘面贴水；PTA工厂库存环比持平；盘面20日均线向上且收盘价收于其上；主力持仓净空且空增 [6]。 MEG - 周三乙二醇价格重心高位震荡，市场商谈尚可，日内盘面宽幅调整，现货基差午后适度走强，场内交投氛围良好，主流供应商参与补货；美金方面，外盘重心宽幅整理，成交略僵持 [7]。 - 本周乙二醇主港到货集中，预计下周初显性库存适度回升，关注周内天气变化及船只卸货进度；7 - 8月乙二醇供需转向紧平衡，较此前预期明显好转，在供应端收紧和宏观气氛良好共振下，短期价格重心偏强运行，关注海外装置恢复进度 [7]。 Influencing Factors - 利多因素为近期乙二醇供应端意外频发，沙特几套装置因电力问题停车，涉及产能约170万吨，浙江一大型生产商负荷下降，连云港一裂解装置计划8月检修或致乙二醇重启推后 [8]。 - 利空因素为需求端处于抢出口尾声和内需淡季，终端需求走弱趋势确定 [8]。 Current Logic and Risk Points - 短期商品市场受宏观面影响较大，关注成本端，盘面反弹需关注上方阻力位 [9]。 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day Review - No specific content provided for the previous day review. 2. Daily Tips PTA - 预期短期内价格跟随成本震荡，基差偏弱运行，关注下游聚酯负荷波动 [5]。 - 基本面、基差、库存、盘面、主力持仓等情况综合分析，基本面中性，基差中性，库存中性，盘面偏多，主力持仓偏空 [6]。 MEG - 短期价格重心偏强运行，关注海外装置恢复进度和周内天气及船只卸货情况 [7]。 - 基本面、基差、库存、盘面、主力持仓等情况综合分析，基本面中性，基差中性，库存偏空，盘面偏多，主力持仓偏空 [7]。 3. Today's Focus - No specific content provided for today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and inventory data [10]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents MEG operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and inventory changes [11]. Price - Lists price data of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and their corresponding changes, as well as futures prices, basis, and profit data on July 23 and July 22, 2025 [12]. Inventory Analysis - Includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers in different periods from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Displays the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55][57]. Processing Fees and Profits - Shows PTA processing fees and MEG profits from different production methods, as well as the production profits of polyester fibers from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][64][66][67][68].