大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, indicating that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by factors such as cost support, macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry, and weak demand. The main risk factors include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the steady growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is generally weak, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 28, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [6]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the demand for pipes and plastic weaving being weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 84, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [8]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand [8]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7260 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7288 (-80), the basis is - 28, the warehouse receipt is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), and the PE social inventory is 55.8 million tons (+2.2) [9]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (+30), the price of the 09 contract is 7096 (-72), the basis is 84, the warehouse receipt is 12642 (+400), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), and the PP social inventory is 27.4 million tons (+1.6) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].