大越期货铁矿石早报-20250724

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The overall view on iron ore is to think in a range with a slight upward bias. The fundamentals show that steel mill's hot metal production has started to decrease, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The market situation is affected by factors such as the potential reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans. The basis shows that spot prices are at a premium to futures, and the inventory has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line with an upward 20 - day line, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Steel mill's hot metal production decreases, supply arrival level drops this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy with trade war easing; neutral [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827 with a basis of 4; Qingdao Port Chaote powder spot converted to futures price is 887 with a basis of 64, spot at a premium to futures; neutral [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 14381.51 tons, increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: Price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - Main Position: Iron ore main position is net short with an increase in short positions; bearish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand decreases, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, think in a range with a slight upward bias [2] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] - Bearish Factors: Increased future shipment volume and weak terminal demand [6] Other Catalogs - Iron Ore Port Spot Price: No specific content provided in the summary part [8] - Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis: No specific content provided in the summary part [12] - Iron Ore Import Profit: No specific content provided in the summary part [14] - Iron Ore Shipment Volume: No specific content provided in the summary part [17] - Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory: No specific content provided in the summary part [20] - Iron Ore Arrival Volume and Dredging Volume: No specific content provided in the summary part [25] - Iron Ore Daily Consumption: No specific content provided in the summary part [28] - Steel Enterprise Production Situation: No specific content provided in the summary part [31] - Iron Ore Port Daily Average Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Average Hot Metal: No specific content provided in the summary part [34]