大越期货纯碱早报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, while policy benefits continue to boost market sentiment. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The "anti-involution" policy continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment. Alkali plants have few overhauls, and supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. The overall outlook is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,338 yuan/ton, with a basis of -38 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price. This is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5-year average. This is bearish [4][34]. - Disk: The price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. This is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. This is bearish [4]. - Expectation: Given the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals and the continuous boost of policy benefits, it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [4]. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: The "anti-involution" policy continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment [5]. - Bearish Factors: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macroeconomic benefits exceed expectations [6]. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low-end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,375 | 1,330 | -45 | | Current Value | 1,338 | 1,300 | -38 | | Change Rate | -2.69% | -2.26% | -15.56% | [8] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method is -95.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is at the lowest level in the same period in history [17]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.10%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 733,200 tons, including 414,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20][22]. - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the soda ash capacity expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are planned new capacity additions. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [7][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 94.24% [26]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,800 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.63% [29]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [32]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].