建信期货工业硅日报-20250724

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial Silicon Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures opened high and moved higher, then fell sharply after a mid - session rally with significant position reduction. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,525 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The trading volume was 1,681,660 lots, and the open interest was 334,779 lots, with a net reduction of 46,182 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Outlook - The fundamental factors are not the main driving force currently. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. The photovoltaic demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the shutdown and rectification of a certain organic silicon enterprise in Shandong has reduced the demand. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - Currently, the order of factors influencing the market is policy > funds > fundamentals. After the polysilicon limit - up board was opened, industrial silicon also reduced positions by 46,000 lots and fell on heavy volume. If it fails to break through the 10,000 - yuan mark in the short term, it is likely to reach a phased peak. However, due to the current policy and spot price support, the downside space is also limited. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels on an intraday basis [4]. Market News - On July 23, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,106 lots, a net increase of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将出台. The ministry will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a sharp increase of 23% month - on - month and 12% year - on - year, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].