大越期货尿素早报-20250724

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market shows a mixed situation. Although the international urea price remains strong, the second - batch of domestic export quotas is significantly lower than the first - batch, and the domestic supply is in excess with high daily production and开工率, and weak demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The main influencing factors include the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change of export policy [5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has rebounded recently. The international urea price is strong, but the second - batch of domestic export quotas is 120,000 tons, lower than the first - batch of 200,000 tons. The domestic supply side has high daily production and开工率, and the inventory has increased again. The industrial demand for compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and the agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63, and the premium/discount ratio is - 3.7%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. The international urea price is strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4] - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors include high production and daily output, weak domestic demand, and lower - than - expected export quotas [5] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1,710 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1,720 (unchanged), and FOB China price is 2,545 [6] | | Futures Market | UR01 price is 1,779 (-30), UR05 price is 1,793 (-22), UR09 price is 1,773 (-44), and the basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63 (+44) [6] | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2,523 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.177 million tons, and UR port inventory is 245,000 tons [6] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]