大越期货豆粕早报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Data: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].