镍日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - On July 23, the nickel price shifted to narrow - range fluctuations as the continuously surging varieties adjusted, indicating emerging market divergence. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and price pressure persists. With the approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. Although the ferronickel price has slightly rebounded, most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss, and the production reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, providing limited price support. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained flat. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the subsequent support from the ore end may weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - On July 23, the SHFE nickel 2509 closed at 123,370, down 0.06% from the previous day, and the total index positions decreased by 2,860 to 173,672 lots. The nickel market's excess situation remains, and price pressure exists. The supply of nickel ore will be loose, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The ferronickel price has a slight rebound, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss, and the support for prices is limited. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained at 27,250, and it is expected to stop falling temporarily. The overall performance of each industrial link is weakening, and the support from the ore end may loosen. The macro - sentiment currently dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be treated with caution [7]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far lower than the approved RKAB quota of 364.1 million tons in the first half of the year. The low utilization rate of the quota was due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance its international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system, marking a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 megawatt - hours of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A Turkish research team developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency, potentially reducing production costs [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its energy and emission - reduction goals [10].