大越期货油脂早报-20250724

Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of fats and oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of fats and oils is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of fats and oils are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Specific Analysis of Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% MoM to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% MoM to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% MoM to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% MoM increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 226, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 11.7% YoY. It is bearish. - Disk: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the subsequent palm oil supply will increase. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9060, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons MoM and 34.1% YoY. It is bullish. - Disk: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the subsequent palm oil supply will increase. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 3.2% YoY. It is bearish. - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is currently the palm oil production cut season [5] -利空: The prices of fats and oils are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of fats and oils is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related fats and oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of fats and oils are relatively loose [5] Supply and Demand Indicators - Supply indicators include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and domestic total fat and oil inventory [24] - Demand indicator: The apparent consumption of soybean oil [14]