《有色》日报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].