大越期货甲醇早报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port market of methanol is expected to continue range - bound oscillations in the short term due to potential inventory accumulation, and the futures trend may be affected by tariff and crude oil news. The inland market has support on the supply side but faces weak demand in the traditional high - temperature off - season. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The port market has a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the inland market has low demand in the off - season but some support on the supply side. The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production starts to decrease, some downstream devices are put into production, and northwest CTO factories continue to purchase methanol externally [6]. - Short Factors: Some previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the traditional off - season, MTBE production starts to decline significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively shipping, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot Market: The prices of ring - Bohai thermal coal, CFR China main port, and CFR Southeast Asia remain unchanged, while the import cost decreases by 1 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions show different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. - Futures Market: The futures closing price drops by 46 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 160, and the effective forecast remains at 0 [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis, import spread, and some regional spreads change, with the basis increasing by 51 yuan/ton and the import spread increasing by 45 yuan/ton [8]. - Start - up Rate: The weighted average national start - up rate drops by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the start - up rates in different regions also decline to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory in East China ports increases by 1.98 tons to 44.60 tons, and the inventory in South China ports increases by 0.86 tons to 15.00 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including those in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55]. - Foreign Devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [56]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic olefin devices are in maintenance or have different operating states, with some running stably and some having planned or unplanned shutdowns [57].