工业硅期货早报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9360 - 9690 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a continuous recession, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49105 - 51055 [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 249,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, at a high level with a production profit of 373 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 71.38%, flat compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 37,200 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2789 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The estimated production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 11.1GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In June, cell production was 56.19GW, a 6.73% decrease from the previous month, and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.94GW, a 37.71% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In June, component production was 46.3GW, a 10.61% decrease from the previous month. The estimated component production for July is 45.45GW, a 1.83% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,010 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 8990 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 23, the price of N - type dense material was 45,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4080 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [12]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the 09 contract closing at 9525 yuan/ton, a 1.35% decrease from the previous day [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China have generally increased, with the price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon increasing by 3.17% to 9750 yuan/ton [18]. - Social inventory has decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and sample enterprise inventory has decreased by 0.60% to 173,050 tons [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts have increased, with the 09 contract closing at 50,080 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous day [21]. - Silicon wafer production has increased by 0.7GW to 12.9GW, and inventory has decreased by 7.5GW to 26.5GW [21]. - Cell external sales factory weekly inventory has decreased by 6.02GW to 9.94GW, a 37.72% decrease [21]. - Component monthly production has decreased by 5.5GW to 46.3GW, and domestic inventory has decreased by 26.54GW to 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease [21]. 3. Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical changes in basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical changes in delivery warehouse, port inventory, and sample enterprise inventory [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical changes in sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical changes in power prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample area trends show the historical changes in cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical changes in supply, demand, and balance of industrial silicon [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - DMC price and production trends show the historical changes in DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [45]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - downstream price trends show the historical changes in the prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - import - export and inventory trends show the historical changes in DMC import, export, and inventory [50]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - price and supply trends show the historical changes in waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, un - forged aluminum alloy import - export, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost and profit [53]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - inventory and production trends show the historical changes in the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - demand (automobile and wheel hub) shows the historical changes in automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [58]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - fundamental trends show the historical changes in polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand [63]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - supply - demand balance sheet shows the historical changes in polysilicon supply, demand, and balance [66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - silicon wafer trends show the historical changes in silicon wafer price, production, inventory, demand, and net export [69]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - cell trends show the historical changes in cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export [72]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic component trends show the historical changes in component price, inventory, production, and export [75]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessory trends show the historical changes in photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass production and export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [78]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component component cost - profit trends (210mm) show the historical changes in the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost, and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [81].