广发期货农产品日报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Due to concerns about production growth and export slowdown, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may enter a shock - adjustment phase. Monitor the resistance at 4,350 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to oscillate horizontally in the range of 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. Be wary of the risk of a pull - back if the Malaysian palm oil encounters resistance at high levels [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainties in US trade relations and expectations of a large US soybean harvest have a negative impact on CBOT soybeans and, in turn, CBOT soybean oil. However, the expected good performance of BMD palm oil due to pre - festival stocking may boost CBOT soybean oil. In the long - term, CBOT soybean oil may rise, while it is currently in a stagnant adjustment phase. In the domestic market, the spot market has slow sales, and the basis quotes are under pressure in the short - term but may be boosted in August [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall considering the increasing production pattern. In the domestic market, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, while the entry of processed sugar and expected increase in imports lead to a marginally looser supply - demand situation, suggesting a bearish view after rebounds [4]. 2.3 Corn - In the short - term, the market sentiment has recovered. Supply shortages support the futures price rebound, but the upside is limited. The policy auctions should be closely monitored. In the medium - term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption will support corn prices [7]. 2.4 Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at high levels. Although the downstream industry is still weak, the rising cotton prices have driven up yarn prices. The supply of old cotton after the price increase has put some pressure on the market, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market. In the long - term, cotton prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. 2.5 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced the egg production rate and egg weight, resulting in a shortage of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs is starting, and the trading volume is increasing. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [11]. 2.6 Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating phase, supported by expected dry weather in August and improved trade expectations. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The supply will remain high in the short - term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, limiting the basis decline. The market sentiment is suppressed by the government's promotion of soybean meal substitution. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 2.7 Pigs - The current supply - demand situation of pigs is weak. The recent rise in the futures price is mainly driven by market sentiment. Although there may be a short - term boost in trading volume at the end and beginning of the month, the supply is expected to recover. Spot prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the upside of the near - term 09 contract is limited. The far - term contracts are more affected by policies, and it is not advisable to short blindly, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - Price Changes: On July 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 8,310 yuan, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 2 yuan to 8,074 yuan. The basis decreased by 18 yuan to 236 yuan. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 68 yuan to 8,994 yuan. The basis decreased by 68 yuan to 6 yuan. The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,550 yuan, and the futures price (OI509) decreased by 21 yuan to 9,456 yuan. The basis decreased by 79 yuan to 94 yuan [1]. - Spread Changes: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4 yuan to 44 yuan, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 4 yuan to 20 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan to 53 yuan. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 690 yuan, and the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 70 yuan to - 920 yuan. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 80 yuan to 1,240 yuan, and the 2509 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 19 yuan to 1,382 yuan [1]. 3.2 Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 3 yuan to 5,656 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan to 5,834 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.01 cents to 16.27 cents/pound. The 1 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 178 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 40 yuan to 5,920 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning decreased by 22 yuan to - 1,590 yuan/ton, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning decreased by 28 yuan to - 385 yuan/ton [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 million tons, an increase of 152.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi reached 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 51.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.72 million tons, with a decline rate of 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, an increase of 6.42 percentage points, with a growth rate of 9.70% [3]. 3.3 Corn - Corn: The price of corn 2509 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 1 yuan to 2,321 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 39 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 74 yuan. The price of bulk grain in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan to 2,430 yuan. The north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan to - 11 yuan. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1,994 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 10 yuan to 436 yuan [7]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2509 increased by 7 yuan to 2,675 yuan. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,680 yuan, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan. The basis decreased by 7 yuan to 5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan to 49 yuan [7]. 3.4 Cotton - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 45 yuan to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 35 yuan to 14,065 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.03 cents to 68.29 cents/pound. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 80 yuan to 115 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract decreased by 15,967 to 538,200, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 9,382 [9]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) decreased by 5 yuan to 15,411 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) decreased by 6 yuan to 15,543 yuan. The FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 35 yuan to 13,728 yuan/ton [9]. - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory decreased by 28.74 million tons to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons to 88.21 million tons. The import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 3 million tons. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.9 million tons to 32.7 million tons. The inventory days of yarn increased by 1.13 days to 28.36 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth increased by 0.63 days to 37.24 days [9]. 3.5 Eggs - Price Changes: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,637 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3,613 yuan/500KG. The price in the egg - producing area increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 82 yuan to - 305 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 8 spread decreased by 23 yuan to 24 yuan [11]. - Related Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.02 yuan to 3.88 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens increased by 0.2 yuan to 4.80 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.14 to 2.25, and the breeding profit increased by 8.52 yuan to - 32.98 yuan/feather [11]. 3.6 Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,920 yuan, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 9 yuan to 3,095 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan to - 175 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu was m2509 - 190. The import crushing profit for Brazilian September shipments increased by 4 yuan to 110 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 170 to 41,446 [14]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,660 yuan, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 22 yuan to 2,758 yuan. The basis decreased by 12 yuan to - 98 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong was rm09 - 130. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 7 yuan to 303 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [14]. - Soybeans: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 15 yuan to 4,217 yuan. The basis increased by 15 yuan to - 257 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract (No. 2) increased by 1 yuan to 3,724 yuan. The basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 64 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 162 to 14,522 [14]. - Spreads: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 3 yuan to - 21 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 15 yuan to 314 yuan. The oil - to - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.007 to 2.85, and the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.008 to 2.61. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 260 yuan, and the 2509 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 337 yuan [14]. 3.7 Pigs - Futures Market: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 310 yuan to - 290 yuan. The price of the 2511 contract increased by 340 yuan to 14,300 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 210 yuan to 14,590 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 130 yuan to 290 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract increased by 7,482 to 67,303, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 [16]. - Spot Market: The price of pigs in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 14,450 yuan/ton. The price in Sichuan decreased by 50 yuan to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan to 14,050 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong decreased by 200 yuan to 15,740 yuan/ton, and the price in Hunan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,110 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei decreased by 150 yuan to 14,350 yuan/ton [16]. - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 37 to 133,568, the weekly price of white - striped pigs decreased by 0.2 yuan to 20.63 yuan, the weekly price of piglets remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged at 32.52 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.2 kg to 128.83 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 43 yuan to 91 yuan/head, and the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding decreased by 50.3 yuan to - 19 yuan/head. The monthly number of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 4,042 million [16].