Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - Methanol: This week, both inland and port areas saw inventory reduction. The slowdown in port unloading and the recovery of port MTO profits led to increased port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July but expected future production resumptions. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. At the port, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian device production, imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. After the recovery of MTO profits, the possibility of maintenance is uncertain [1]. - Urea: After the callback, the futures price stabilized. The main logic is the game between the expected supply contraction and the weak actual demand. Large - scale and long - term maintenance is a potential positive factor, and a daily production below 190,000 tons strengthens the supply - side expectations. During the off - season, agricultural demand is low, and industrial demand cannot expand significantly. The contradiction lies in the "strong expectation vs. weak reality". The futures price opened high and closed low, reflecting the lack of confidence in demand from long - position holders. Policy - related sentiment disturbances may cause the price to return to the loose supply - demand fundamentals. The supply reduction before the autumn stock - up may lead to a volatile pattern, and price breakthroughs depend on demand improvement [5]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved overall. Although the production cuts of Shenghong and Hengli devices had limited impact on the loss of pure benzene, the price transmission in downstream industries was poor, especially in the CPL downstream due to high inventory and expected production cuts. With high import expectations and high port inventory, pure benzene's self - driving force is limited. As the commodity market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of pure benzene may be under pressure. For styrene, the short - term operating rate is high, but downstream EPS/PS factories are reducing production due to compressed profits and are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply - demand outlook is weak, port inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. As the market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of styrene may also be under pressure [8]. - LLDPE and PP: In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. Dynamically, PP maintenance has reached its peak, while PE maintenance first increased and then decreased. Import offers are still scarce, and some Middle - East devices stopped due to power issues. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Currently, the market sentiment is positive. For PP, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - position holders should wait and see. For PE, it is recommended to buy within a certain range [11]. - Crude Oil: Overnight, the oil price oscillated weakly. The main logic is the structural contradiction between crude oil inventory reduction and the macro - economic suppression of long - term demand. EIA data shows a large reduction in crude oil inventory, which is higher than expected. However, while gasoline inventory decreased, distillate oil inventory increased significantly, and the refinery operating rate increased. The crack spread of US refined oil increased slightly, promoting the rise of refinery operating rates. The inventory structure shows a tightening of crude oil supply, with a decline in production and imports, which supports the oil price. However, the market is concerned about tariff frictions. The approaching US - EU tariff negotiations and the implementation risks of China - US tariff policies may suppress industrial oil demand. In the short term, the unexpected reduction in crude oil inventory cannot reverse the oscillating pattern, and the increase in regional inventory and long - term concerns limit the upside space of the oil price. It is recommended to use short - term band - trading strategies, and the option side can capture opportunities from increased volatility [13]. - PTA, MEG, and Related Products: For PX, except for the planned maintenance of some devices, the overall supply is stable. Polyester sales provide limited support, and the weakening of oil price support makes PX's self - driving force limited in the short term. As the market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of PX may be under pressure. For PTA, the current load is around 80%, and there are expectations of new device launches. However, the demand outlook is weak, so PTA's driving force is weak. For MEG, multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices had unexpected shutdowns in mid - July, resulting in lower - than - expected supply increases. With a decrease in import expectations and low port inventory in the short term, the supply - demand relationship is tight. For short - fiber, although factories plan to cut production in July, due to weak terminal demand, high - temperature weather, and high costs, the supply - demand is weak. For bottle - grade polyester chips, July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of inventory improvement. However, considering the high supply level, attention should be paid to whether device production cuts increase and downstream follow - up [18]. - Chlor - Alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC): For caustic soda, the futures price declined and had a callback. Previously, it was boosted by policies, and the market expected future industry capacity reduction. Spot trading was average, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Low - concentration caustic soda is supported by alumina demand, and most enterprises have low inventory, but non - alumina downstream users resist high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits stimulate high production. Downstream non - alumina industries are in the off - season, but periodic restocking increases delivery volume. Currently, upstream inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase in the peak season. In the short term, due to strong macro - level disturbances and increased trading risks, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the futures price declined significantly. Previously, it was boosted by policies, and the market expected capacity reduction. The spot market had light trading, and prices fluctuated slightly. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Demand during the off - season is weak, foreign trade export orders are average, and inventory has slightly increased. In the short term, the trading logic is mainly affected by macro - level sentiment rather than the product's fundamentals, so it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. Summary by Categories Methanol - Price and Spread: On July 23, MA2601 closed at 2497, down 1.54% from the previous day; MA2509 closed at 2411, down 1.87%. The MA91 spread was - 86, down 8.86%. The Taicang basis was - 1, up 97.62%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 2.39% to 2038 yuan/ton, and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia northern line regional spread decreased by 12.35% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of medium - sized methanol enterprises decreased by 3.55% to 33.983%; the methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 726,000 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6.73% to 106.6% [1]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94% to 71.09%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 75.54% [1]. Urea - Price and Ratio: The price of compound fertilizer 45%S (Henan) and 45%CL (Henan) remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer - urea ratio was 1.48, unchanged [5]. - Supply - Demand Data: On July 25, the domestic daily urea production was 196,400 tons, down 0.25% from the previous day. The coal - based urea daily production was 154,700 tons, down 0.32%. The weekly domestic urea production was 1.3789 million tons, unchanged. The factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 858,800 tons, and the order days of production enterprises decreased by 1.98% to 5.94 days [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Cash Flow and Spread: On July 23, the non - integrated EB cash flow was 180, down 5.3% from the previous day; the integrated EB cash flow was 306, down 11.7%. The EB - BZ spot spread was 1460, down 0.3% [8]. - Inventory: As of July 21, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 171,000 tons, up 4.3% from July 14; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 150,700 tons, up 8.8% [8]. - Operating Rate: As of July 17, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 77.4%, up 0.7% from July 10; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 78.1%, up 0.3% [8]. LLDPE and PP - Price and Spread: On July 23, the PP2509 closed at 7096, down 1.00% from the previous day; the L2509 - 2601 spread was - 58, down 20.83%. The North China plastic basis was - 110, up 26.67% [11]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48% to 493,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.69% to 537,000 tons. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.95% to 581,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 3.21% to 155,000 tons [11]. - Operating Rate: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10% to 77.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 37.9%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 76.6%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.9% to 36.3% [11]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: On July 24, Brent M1 - M3 was 1.16 dollars, down 13.43% from the previous day; WTI M1 - M3 was 1.36 dollars, up 5.43%. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.07 dollars, down 5.83% [13]. - Refined Oil: NYM RBOB was 211.94 cents/gallon, down 0.09% from July 23; NYM ULSD was 245.20 cents/gallon, up 0.12% [13]. PTA, MEG, and Related Products - PTA: On July 23, the PTA East China spot price was 4775 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous day; the TA09 - TA01 spread was 4, down 60.0% [18]. - MEG: The MEG East China spot price was 4501 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from July 22; the MEG import profit was - 47 yuan/ton, up 10.2% [18]. Chlor - Alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Supply - Side: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.3%, up 1.3% from July 11; the PVC total operating rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% [24]. - Demand - Side: The viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 84.6%, up 8.7% from July 11; the Longzhong sample pipe operating rate was 33.8%, down 10.4% [25][26]. - Inventory: As of July 17, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 213,000 tons, up 13.8% from July 10; the PVC total social inventory was 411,000 tons, up 4.7% [27].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250724
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-24 02:30