大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In June 2025, production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's is forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,046 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,323 tons, a 1.57% increase. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 67,813 yuan/ton, a 0.72% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 72,868 yuan/ton, a 0.48% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,992 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][11]. - Market Outlook - lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton. The overall situation shows an intensifying supply surplus, with the main logic being that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: last week's production was 19,115 tons, up 1.60% week - on - week. June 2025 production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's forecast is 81,150 tons, up 3.92%. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's forecast is 22,000 tons, up 24.31% [8][9]. - Demand: last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 95,046 tons, up 0.99% week - on - week, and ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 16,323 tons, up 1.57%. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. Externally purchased spodumene concentrate cost is 67,813 yuan/ton, up 0.72% daily, with a profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. Externally purchased lithium mica cost is 72,868 yuan/ton, up 0.48% daily, with a loss of 4,992 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Market Outlook: lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton range [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: the previous day's futures closing prices showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 3.36% - 4.80%. The basis showed an increase, with the increase rate ranging from 128.31% - 218.75%. The number of registered warrants was 10,754, a 6.59% increase. Upstream prices such as lithium ore and lithium mica increased slightly, while some products like anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [17]. - Supply - Side Data: weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends. Monthly production and import volume are expected to increase. The production cost of spodumene and lithium mica increased slightly, and the production profit of spodumene increased significantly [20]. - Demand - Side Data: the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased, while the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased [20]. - Inventory Data: the total inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 58,039 tons, a 0.95% decrease, and downstream inventory was 41,271 tons, a 1.24% increase [10][11]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the price of 6% spodumene increased by 1.08% [17]. - Production: the production of domestic spodumene mines and lithium mica showed an upward trend [27]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, with a 17.25% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate: the weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends [33]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with a 8.34% increase in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, with a 16.31% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Recycling: the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization: the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased, with a 4.09% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Spodumene: the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate increased, and the production profit increased [45]. - Lithium Mica: the cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate increased, and the production profit decreased [45]. - Recycling: the cost and profit of recycling different types of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [48]. - Purification and Carbonization: the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the carbonization profit of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate showed different trends [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide: the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: the monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells increased [57]. - Loading: the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased [57]. - Shipment: the monthly shipment volume of power cells increased [57]. - Export: the export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Capacity Utilization: the capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary precursors increased [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Operating Rate: the weekly operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary materials increased [69]. - Export and Import: the export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: the price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Capacity: the capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed an upward trend [73]. - Operating Rate: the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Production: the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased [76]. - Export: the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium decreased [76]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium increased [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: the production of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Export: the export volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Sales: the sales volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Penetration Rate: the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [82]. - Retail - to - Wholesale Ratio: the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles showed different trends [85]. - Inventory Index: the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index showed different trends [85].