广发期货日评-20250724

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides specific investment advice for different futures varieties: - Buy Recommendations: Steel (RB2510), Gold (AU2510), Silver (AG2510), Ethanol (EG2509), Methanol (MA2509, M2509), Palm Oil (P2509/Y2509/O1509) [2] - Sell Recommendations: EC2510 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), Stainless Steel (SS2509 short - term strategy), PX2509 (short - at upper - range), PTA2509 (short - at upper - range), SR2509 (Sugar - rebound short), CF2509 (Cotton - mid - term short), JD2509 (Eggs - long - term short), CJ2601 (Jujube - long - term short) [2] - Hold Recommendations: IH2509 (put option short - position), IM2509 (long - position with reduced exposure), TF2509, TS2509, TI2509 (Treasury bonds - curve strategy), RB2510 (Steel), JM2509 (Coking Coal), J2509 (Coke), CU2509 (Copper), AL2509 (Aluminum), ZN2509 (Zinc), SM2508 (Antimony), NISE09 (Nickel), PR2509 (Bottle Chips), UR2509 (Urea - range operation), EG2509 (Ethanol - put option seller), RM509 (Rapeseed Meal - short - term long), C2509 (Corn - watch pressure), AP2510 (Apple - around 7900), PK2510 (Peanut - around 8100), FG2509 (Glass - watch risk), RU2509 (Rubber - watch) [2] 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of put option short - positions in MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. The large - finance sector is building up strength to rise, while the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, and the short - term sentiment transmission still affects the bond market, with the future dependent on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies [2]. - Precious Metals: The news of a trade agreement between the US and countries like Europe and Japan eases the risk - aversion sentiment, causing gold to fall from its high. Gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average due to the weakening credit and the driving of the commodity attribute. Silver has further room to rise under the support of the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflow, and long positions can be held [2]. - Shipping and Black Metals: The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to be weak in the near - month, and it is advisable to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices. In the black metals sector, the sentiment has improved, with increased iron - water production and steel mills' restocking. However, there are different strategies for different products such as taking profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices [2]. - Non - ferrous Metals and Energy Chemicals: Copper prices are oscillating strongly due to anti - involution policies. Alumina prices have fallen from the high due to concerns about the resumption of factory capacity in Shanxi. In the energy chemicals sector, different products face different market conditions, such as short - term weakness in oil prices, and different trading strategies are proposed for each product [2]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, palm oil is strong, sugar has a loose overseas supply and is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and cotton is strong in the short - term but shorted at high prices in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: There is high - low rotation among sectors, large - finance is building up strength, and the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [2]. - Investment Strategy: Gradually take profits on IM long positions, switch to MO put option short - positions, and be mainly moderately bullish. In the short - term, adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and focus on the Politburo meeting [2]. Treasury Bonds - Market Situation: The short - term sentiment transmission affects the bond market, and it is difficult to say that it has stabilized [2]. - Investment Strategy: Focus on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies and actual demand changes. Continue to play the steepening strategy for the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - Market Situation: Gold has fallen from the high due to eased risk - aversion, while silver has the potential to rise further [2]. - Investment Strategy: Hold long positions in silver, and gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average [2]. Shipping and Black Metals - Market Situation: The container shipping index (European Line) is falling, and the black metals sector has improved sentiment with increased iron - water production and restocking [2]. - Investment Strategy: Short the container shipping index contracts; take profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices, and hold long positions in steel [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Market Situation: Copper prices are oscillating strongly, alumina prices have fallen from the high, and other non - ferrous metals have different price trends [2]. - Investment Strategy: Different trading ranges and strategies are proposed for each non - ferrous metal product [2]. Energy Chemicals - Market Situation: Oil prices are weak in the short - term, and different energy chemicals products face different supply - demand and market sentiment situations [2]. - Investment Strategy: Different trading strategies such as range trading, shorting at high prices, and option trading are proposed for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - Market Situation: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand and price trends, such as strong palm oil and loose sugar supply [2]. - Investment Strategy: Different trading strategies are proposed for each agricultural product, such as shorting on rebounds for sugar and shorting at high prices in the medium - term for cotton [2]. Special Commodities - Market Situation: Glass and rubber are affected by macro and sentiment factors, with large price fluctuations [2]. - Investment Strategy: Observe and pay attention to risk avoidance for glass, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy for rubber [2]. New Energy - Related Commodities - Market Situation: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and market situations [3]. - Investment Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for all of them and pay attention to price risks [3].