芳烃橡胶早报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA weekly operation remains stable, polyester load declines, inventory accumulates slightly, basis rebounds after the weakening of liquidity shock, and spot processing fees are slightly repaired. TA enters the inventory accumulation stage, but the absolute inventory level is not high. There are opportunities to expand the far - month processing fees at low prices. PX's overall de - stocking trend remains, and the lower limit of valuation is guaranteed [2] - For MEG, the near - term unexpected domestic reduction increases, overseas Saudi devices stop again, and port inventory is expected to decline. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, and the far - month valuation will rise. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term production reduction leads to a decline in operation rate, sales are slightly weaker, and inventory is de - stocked. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3] - For styrene, no clear overall view is provided, but data on raw materials, products, and profits are presented Summary by Product PTA - Data Changes: From July 17 to July 23, crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 65, and PTA processing fee increased by 49 [2] - Market Situation: Near - term TA operation is stable, polyester load declines, inventory accumulates slightly, basis rebounds, and spot processing fees are slightly repaired. PX domestic operation declines slightly, overseas load rises, and PXN strengthens slightly [2] - Outlook: TA enters the inventory accumulation stage, but the absolute inventory level is not high. The slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fees are at a low level, and polyester operation is expected to stabilize. Pay attention to opportunities to expand far - month processing fees at low prices. PX's overall de - stocking trend remains, and the lower limit of valuation is guaranteed [2] MEG - Data Changes: From July 17 to July 23, MEG external - market price increased by 1, MEG internal - market price increased by 11, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 11 [3] - Market Situation: Near - term unexpected domestic reduction increases, overseas Saudi devices stop again, port inventory is expected to decline, downstream inventory levels decline, basis weakens after the repair of the monthly structure, and the benefit ratio expands [3] - Outlook: The supply - side unexpected reduction reduces the inventory accumulation amplitude. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, the far - month valuation will rise, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: From July 17 to July 23, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 10, and short - fiber profit decreased by 24 [3] - Market Situation: Near - term production reduction leads to a decline in the operation rate to 89.5%, sales are slightly weaker, and inventory is de - stocked. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn continues to decline, raw material inventory increases slightly, and finished - product inventory accumulates [3] - Outlook: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has no obvious reduction or increase. Domestic demand is weak, and export growth is high. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts [3] Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Data Changes: From July 17 to July 23, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber is 45, and the weekly change of Shanghai full - latex is 560 [3] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3] - Outlook: The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Data Changes: From July 17 to July 23, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 13, and the domestic profit of styrene increased by 60 [3] - Market Situation: Data on raw materials, products, and profits are presented, but no clear overall market situation description is provided [3] - Outlook: Not provided