原油成品油早报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil product inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oilfield was attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching a historical low for the same period, and the European diesel crack spread led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, US gasoline apparent demand declined significantly, and the global gasoline crack spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. In the current peak season of crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter-month structure, but the peak season factors have been relatively fully realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non-OPEC production and the near-term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Iran has agreed to accept a technical delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will visit Iran in two to three weeks [3]. - The IEA said that global liquefied natural gas supply will see the largest increase since 2019 next year [3]. - The US Energy Information Administration announced that the US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil for the first time [4]. - Many places in Canada have decided to build new cross-provincial oil pipelines, stating "We can no longer rely on the Americans" [4]. - Mexico plans to issue bonds worth $7 - 10 billion to support Pemex [4]. - The US Treasury Department will impose sanctions on the oil smuggling and evasion network related to the Houthi rebels, targeting entities and individuals in Yemen and the UAE [4]. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report showed that US domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report indicated that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75% [4]. - The EIA report stated that the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01% [4]. - The EIA report showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05% in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report indicated that US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.976 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery production of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, and inventories of gasoline increased while those of diesel decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined on a week - on - week basis [5].