永安期货LPG早报-20250724

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend due to weak combustion demand. Although the chemical demand outlook is strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a downward trend in the PG market. The cheapest deliverable is the East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse spread has strengthened. The inventory at ports has increased under high unloading volumes, while the plant inventory has slightly increased. Chemical demand is strong, with the PDH operating rate rising significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increasing. However, the MTBE export profit has declined [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From July 17 to July 23, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different changes. The daily change on July 23 showed that South China LPG increased by 20, propane CFR South China increased by 10, propane CIF Japan increased by 19, MB propane spot increased by 2, and CP forecast contract price increased by 18, while other prices remained unchanged. The basis increased by 2 [1]. - The futures market showed that the 08 - 09 spread was 41, and the 08 - 10 spread was - 383. The US - Far East arbitrage window was open. The cheapest deliverable on Wednesday was the East China civil LPG at 4443. FEI and CP continued to decline, PP dropped significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, with the CP production cost lower than that of FEI [1]. Weekly Viewpoints - Market Trend: The PG futures market oscillated downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend due to weak combustion demand [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse spread strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants increased by 500 to 8804 hands, with 500 hands added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - Regional Spreads and Arbitrage: The PG - CP spread reached 27 (+8), the FEI - MB spread reached 163 (+6), the FEI - CP spread reached - 5.5 (+9.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was open. The FEI - MOPJ spread moved up to - 43.75 (-1.75) [1]. - Profit and Inventory: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. The port inventory increased significantly, and the plant inventory increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% mainly due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1]. - Chemical Demand: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct) due to the restart of some plants. The alkylation operating rate increased, and the MTBE export orders increased [1].